Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Kirkuk Turns A Corner

With all the talk about the NIE pertaining to Iran yesterday and today, this story from the AP has been short-changed in a big way:

"Sunni Arabs ended a yearlong political boycott Tuesday in Kirkuk - the hub of Iraq's northern oil fields - under a cooperation pact that marked a bold attempt at unity before a planned referendum on control of the strategic region."

Read the whole story first. As it stands, it's pretty rare to read a news report as thoroughly informative as this one; Lauren Frayer did an unusually good job with it.

One of the goals put forward in the GAO report that's in the required reading section is the passage of a profit-sharing law for oil sales. Another AP story on the oil legislation itself expounds on the importance of it:

"U.S. officials view the oil law as a catalyst for investment and a means of tamping down sectarian violence. Most of Iraq's oil reserves are in the Kurdish north and the largely Shiite south. The provinces where most Sunnis live have few proven reserves, leading to suspicions they'll be left out of oil profits."

Kirkuk is something of a lynchpin when it comes to the predominately three-way power struggle that is iconic of much of Iraq. The Kurds are vying largely for independence, the Sunnis are afraid they'll be left out and aren't shy about taking extreme measures to make their point, and the Shi'a are trying to consolidate power that they have in the national government.

Larger political gains are still a ways off, but for immediate effect, consider the fact that for the entire last year, Sunnis in Kirkuk have thought themselves marginalized by the Kurds in the region. The end of the Sunni boycott of provincial council signals an end to the narrative of victimization - that can potentially mean a reduction in violent activities by groups who have for the last year believed that they were being shut out of government, which we know has in the past been a significant driver of anti-government activity.

Kirkuk is still going to be volatile and in terms of politics, one hell of a porcupine to swallow. But I'd be willing to wager that in the next few months, At-Tamim province quiets down just a little more.

3 comments:

Brian H said...

Actually, there's a new oil reality to acknowledge. The ~100 bn bbl unproven Anbar reserves shown by seismic maps concealed by SH to keep the Sunni dependent on his good graces work out to 3X the oil wealth per Iraqi Sunni Arab as compared to the Rest-of-Iraqis. So they are no longer beggars at the table.

Very few analysts, including you, see able to take this fact on board.

Brian H said...

Corr: seem able ...

Cavedog said...

Yeah. I have to admit to not trying very hard to work that one out; that story broke in February, before I started blogging. But now that you've reminded me, I'll have to take it into consideration.