Making The Progress Stick

The latest article from Sami Moubayed at Asia Times discusses the al-Sadr issue that is one of the sticking points of the American effort. Moubayed breaks some news that western media - to their everlasting shame - has not reported at all:

"This week, Muqtada called for a renewal of his truce with both American forces and those of the Iraqi government. It is a gesture of goodwill towards Maliki."

Yes, this article is from today. That doesn't sound like the al-Sadr that the West is familiar with, but then again, the West doesn't get to hear much of anything unless it's car bombs and carnage, with the exception of the recent spate of extremely welcome good news (welcome to some, anyway). Its important to remember that Maliki and al-Sadr were allies at one time:

"The Sadrists had worked with Maliki since 2006. He promised them government support and office while they gave him legitimacy in the poorer districts of Baghdad and among the Shi'ite community at large. They were allowed to keep their militias armed. Maliki also turned a blind eye to their military activity, and used his influence at every interval to prevent the US military from cracking down on the Mahdi Army in Baghdad's Sadr City. "

Remember how annoying that was?

The reason for it is beginning to be fairly clear, in that the Shi'ia in large part fear exactly the same thing they always have: Sunnis taking back the power they held under Saddam. This is a fairly open ambition of some of the Sunni groups that have been co-opted by the Awakening movements (from MSNBC via WaPo):

"The year-long progress in fighting al-Qaeda in Iraq could carry a downside. Maj. Mark Brady, who works on reconciliation issues, noted that a Sunni leader told him: 'As soon as we finish with al-Qaeda, we start with the Shiite extremists.' Talk like that is sharply discouraged, Brady noted as he walked across the dusty ground of Camp Liberty, on the western fringes of Baghdad."

With the Sunnis rising to power - and so far with good cause - through the Awakening movements, some Shi'ia are beginning to get nervous enough to consolidate their efforts, which seems to be what al-Sadr and al-Maliki are trying to do in incremental measures; al-Sadr with an extended reprieve on violent activity, and al-Maliki with press. From Moubayed's Article:

"With the spotlight off him, Maliki gave an interview to the Saudi television channel al-Arabiyya, in which he asserted that 'There is no civil war in Iraq.' He added, 'We don't have a militia problem in Iraq anymore.'"

Maliki knew that he was, to put it politely, not telling the truth. In addition to spreading false public relations about his administration's effectiveness in combating terrorism, the Iraqi premier was also doing something very important. He was reconciling with the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr."

It should be clear that this wasn't the only time that al-Maliki has done this. Al-Maliki was talking about 60mm Birdstrikes when he talked about the militias no longer being a problem a few months ago as well. Of course he was lying, but in the process he is trying to mend some fences by downplaying his rhetoric to a point where his intent is obvious. In this instance, lying is a diplomatic ploy like any other.

Then of course, is the currently outstanding issue of corruption, which is the real hurdle after security gets locked down. So long as al-Maliki keeps playing games like these with al-Sadr in favor of the Shi'ia, the Sunnis will be howling about it. And so long as the Sunnis are joining Awakening movements and sometimes threatening the Shi'ia,, the Shi'ia will take that as a threat and continue to mass their power. This is why counterinsurgency is a political battle as well as a strategic one.

On another note, some commentators on the right have begun pushing the idea that we've won. To be as straightforward about this matter as possible, no. No, we have not. What we have done is drastically improved the security situation, and diplomatic progress is beginning to roll because of that. Which is fantastic. It's incredible. Lets have more. However, General Petraeus will be the first to tell you that tactical success doesn't guarantee a victory in an insurgency, because the kinetic fight is only a fragment of the entire conflict; the rest is social, and political, and economic. Progress is being made across the board, if unevenly. But we're not out of the woods yet and since al-Sadr's intentions for the future are cloudy, the progress we've made is still fragile.

At The Weekly Worldwide Standard, Kimberly Kagan has a very good article on the tactical successes, featuring this quote:

"'I believe we have achieved some momentum,' General Raymond T. Odierno, commander of coalition combat forces in Iraq, said modestly in his November 1 press briefing."

Momentum is great, but the killshot is at the political level, not the strategic level. Fortunately, we're starting to see the strategic progress that we need to start maneuvering for the political win as well.