Stop Holding Your Breath

There's been relatively little to talk about any serious news lately, and what seems like news really isn't. But as November draws to a close, we all know exactly what's on our minds and we're waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Mainstream sources already have stories written and cued for the end of the month, when news will break that the downward trend in violence has reversed, or it has held. So let's get some of the juvenile stuff out of the way before getting into the useful stuff.

First, the American left will cry, no matter which way things go - if deaths come up, then the trend has broken and it's all getting worse. If deaths are down, well, even one death is too many and it's all for nothing.

Second, the American right will celebrate, no matter which way things go - if deaths are up, the increase probably won't be significant, and if deaths are down, well, of course they're down because we're winning - and I happen to think that we really are beginning to.

Third, Iraq will still be dangerous and will still need a lot of work, no matter which way things go. We will not have won or lost based on the end-of-the-month casualty count.

Now the useful stuff.

First, according to a Pew Research Center poll, Americans are seeing the progress in Iraq but a majority - unchanged since February - "still favor(s) bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq as soon as possible rather than keeping troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized." This is neutral news, as public support hasn't increased or decreased. What it means, short term, is that we can't reasonably expect American political will to shift due to what is largely perceived as marginal-to-moderate progress, judging by how much shift there has been in seeing progress - never mind the reality, for this consideration it's the perception that counts. All this means is that American domestic politics on Iraq will be business as usual without a groundbreaking event or protracted change in one direction or another.

Second, is that portions of the Mahdi Army are being audited (read: "cannibalized") in an effort to bring the army to more closely obey al-Sadr's orders, during a stand-down that is seen by at least one qualified analyst as a good will gesture towards al-Maliki. While perhaps the idea of a highly disciplined Sadrist force is disconcerting to begin with, there is a hidden bonus that American forces undoubtedly are working towards.

Al-Sadr's opportunism is obvious, and he can be expected to do that which will suit himself the best. With a strictly loyal Mahdi Army, al-Sadr betters his chances of not being viewed as the political head of a Hamas-like terrorist organization, i.e. someone who needs to be arrested and have his army annihilated. However, with a strictly loyal army also comes the ability to control that army by controlling al-Sadr through deal-making, which we already know Petraeus is doing with al-Sadr's trustees. If we can keep him in the political realm, we can keep his army out of the military equation - something that has been serving us quite well so far.

Third, is that the political surge we need to see has not yet come to be, but that's understandable. Tensions can be expected to be reasonably high, as the decreases in violence are still fairly fresh and news in Iraq travels much more slowly than it does here, and is also easily counteracted by first-hand experiences. Let's not forget just how slowly political processes move and how long it takes them to be influenced: expecting the political reform to have happened this early after the progress is unreasonable, but it's not unreasonable to expect it to start happening, despite sectarian divides.

Iraqi sectarianism will not necessarily be a deal-breaker for political progress any more than American sectarianism is. It should be expected at this point in history that reasonable people will disagree, but that does not by default cause them to refrain from compromising or passing legislation that isn't volatile - things like energy, water, sanitation, and medical services, which really are the next step forward towards creating legitimacy for the Iraqi Government.