What Now?

FOX news recently reported that General Petraeus has met with some of al-Sadr's representatives, which seems to have gone by mostly under the radar, with the exception of this post over at Captain's Quarters a few days ago, which is how I came by the report as well.

"Al-Sadr's aides have been quietly working with U.S. military officials to discuss security operations."

I didn't see that one coming, and I feel a little dumb for it. But when I give it some consideration, al-Sadr has frequently identified himself through his actions as an exemplary opportunist. The old joke about the Groucho Marxist comes to mind. There does seem to be (as unsavory a character as he is) at least a fair shot at co-opting him rather than going toe-to-toe with the Mahdi army; the public is beginning to turn against his violent methods the same way they did for AQI, and that's not a place where a power-hungry cleric wants to find himself in Iraq today.

It also may be possible that General Petraeus has al-Sadr in a very tight spot. Given the massive reduction in civilian deaths that are a direct result of the Mahdi stand-down, it's fair to say that Petraeus would likely know, when the stand-down is called off, exactly who is responsible for what amount of violence and where, and that could in turn fuel a massive amount of anti-Sadrist propaganda and intel that would lose him even more of the popular support than he could lose all by himself.

Al-Sadr may be slime, but he's a long way from stupid. His ability for self-preservation has gotten him much farther than most of his compatriots have ever gone, and he knows perfectly well when to hold 'em and fold 'em. He - or people near him - will have made these considerations, and much more accurately than I have.


I'm not sure its possible for me to like al-Sadr any less. But if he's being earnest about his desires to become part of the solution - even if only for his own political gain - that may be a cross that we can bear so long as the Iraqis will bear it as well. For a warlord, the benefits of cutting a deal have never been better. If he's serious about forming an Iraqi nationalist party, I can think of few things better than disavowing violence and actually working proactively for Iraqi interests.

Unfortunately, I also can't think of anything more unlikely. Al-Sadr is an opportunist, and one without a moral compass. He's a warlord, a politician, and a cleric, and I'm wary of co-opting a man who, if past behavior is any indication, will have only a short walk to become an authoritarian despot.

Good thing Petraeus knows more than I do.